All explanation imaginable already given to the stunning upset in NY9 - From the President’s stance on Israel, to Weprin’s mustache and gender, and the Orthodox rage with his anti-marriage vote – few, if anyone, really bothered to check the facts and mine the data for the real culprit. Comparing some numbers may give us a much better clue why the democrats failed so miserably. It proves, that more than everything, this outcome is a consequence of the Democratic Party’s infighting in Brooklyn.
First, the facts:
The Sienna poll (Q8) taken a week before the elections showed that Turner leads 50/44. Zeroing in the 2 sides of the district, it gave Turner a 5 point lead in the Queens part of the district, and a 12 point lead in Brooklyn.
In the actual results Turner won with 6 percent, but Borough-wise, Weprin pulled an upset in the Queens side, where he won with 5 points, while he lose the Brooklyn portion by a whopping 34 percent (33/67).
Why?
The Democratic county committees in Brooklyn and Queens have to their disposals mighty get-out-the-vote machines. Indeed, Queens Chairman Crowley employed the machine and this gave Weprin a 10 digit advantage, pushing him from -5 to +5.
In Brooklyn, however, the machine was unavailable for what it was the nation’s most important race in the current cycle and can possibly seal President Obama’s fate, because it was occupied for a local turf war.
Chairman Lopez is in a constant struggle with a group of reformers wanting to overthrow him and democratize the Democratic County committee. A special Assembly election, in AD 50, shaped out to be the current proxy fight between these two groups, and a third candidate from the Towns clan.
Lopez won, but the democrats and the president loss big time.
It’s not only Lopez who was occupied with this fight. The progressive wing of the party in Brooklyn, led by Rep. Nydia Valazquez, a Lopez foe, and the new district leader Lincoln Restler, poured in their resources against Lopez, instead of defending a candidate who was hammered for his pro-LGBT choice. Additionally the liberal WFP also invested their formidable resources in the AD 50, and not in the NY9, although Weprin ran under their party as well.
It should be a good lesson for all politicians: The LGBT community can threaten and revenge if you defy them, but won’t necessarily come to your defense from the other side.
Ironically, the Ant-Lopez movement grew out from a group organizing for Candidate Obama. Now they handed President Obama a stinging defeat.
For the local powerful and power-hungry it obviously was worth the price! For the rest of the party, who cares?
CityHall News Editor Adam Lisberg responded to this article:
ReplyDelete"This is interesting. I hadn't noticed the polling differential. Thanks for sending."
Colby Hamilton, of The Empire, uses my analysis (he even uses my "whopping" expression) but with a different explanation. He credits a Brooklyn Russian political operative, Gregory Davidzon, for getting out the vote for the republicans.
ReplyDeleteI sent him the article in email, and he replied: "Just wanted to say thanks for this. Helped inform some of the pieces." (I haven't the other pieces I helped inform).
As to why he didn't attributed the finding to me, he replied that he didn't relized it's the hyperlink.
Below is his article on the issue, that I helped inform.
http://empire.wnyc.org/2011/09/meet-the-man-who-delivered-the-russian-vote-and-the-election-for-bob-turner/