The voters in NY-27 will not only decide in the next 24 hours between democrat Lew Fidler and Republican David Storobin. They may also determine if the NY State Senate will soon switch from republican to democrat control. If that happens, it will mean that our government will turn into a one party system. Here is why it may depend on our votes:
For starters, the NY State Senate is currently composed of 32 republicans and 30 democrats. For the republicans to lose control, it only requires one of their members to switch parties and the democratic Lt. Governor will break the tie to elect a democratic Majority Leader, possibly Brooklyn’s John Sampson. According to today’s NY Post, Governor Cuomo approved a republican friendly state senate map because he prefers a republican leadership in the state senate over his own party member, due to the minority leadership’s incompetence and borderline corrupt.
According to a source, republican Senator Roy McDonald from Saratoga - who will face a tough conservative challenge due to his liberal stances, including his vote for marriage redefinition - is in talks with senate democrats about a possible party switch.
For such a switch to happen, McDonald will definitely wait for the NY-27 outcome. First the 31st democratic senate seat is Carl Kruger’s and is currently vacant, and if the republicans will win the seat McDonald’s switch will not switch the majority. Only if Fidler wins, as expected, will McDonald consider a party switch, which will change the balance of power in Albany to one that is exclusively democratic.
It’s interesting that NY-27 was also involved in the last state senate power seize through power switches, when Kruger was part of the 4 amigos who handed control to the republicans for a short period. It may now decide if an opposite power shift will happen.
In his interview with the OP, Fidler said: "I disagree with the premise that the Republicans will remain in the majority." It's interesting that His election may very soon fulfill his prophecy...
UPDATE: "McDonald insists he’s not becoming a democrat, and Skelos will fundraise for him.
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In his interview with the OP, Fidler said: "I disagree with the premise that the Republicans will remain in the majority." It's interesting that His election may very soon fulfill his prophecy...
UPDATE: "McDonald insists he’s not becoming a democrat, and Skelos will fundraise for him.
For notification of new posts, follow me @opundit.
This analysis fails to recon with the fact that, even with McDonald, Sampson still will not have votes from Klein, Savino, Valesky and Carlucci.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats will not take control unless they dump their own leader. And then, surely, other Dems will be in play by the GOP
You're wrong on many different levels. First, the democrats have 29 seats + the krueger vacancy. Secondly, there is no way Roy McDonald is going to support john sampson as majority leader - it's just not going to happen. Furthetmore, on the off chance that mcdonald did do that sampson still lacks the support of the 4 IDC members and there is little chance of that changing either.
ReplyDeleteYour figures are included in my post. It looks that you're better in muber forms than reading, so let me giave you the math: 29 (current Ds) + 1 Fidler (victorious Fidler) + 1 (Switching McDonald) + 1 (Lt. Governor Ravitch breaking the tie) =32 Ds ; 32 (current Rs) -1 (switching NcDonald) = 31 Rs. So the Ds are in the majority.
DeleteThe main point of my article is still valid, without Sampson.
It's also arguable that the LG can only cast a tie breaking vote on procedural matters and not for leadership ... It would definitely end up in the courts
ReplyDelete