Methodology of Analysis of Orthodox Vote

Here is the methodology I used to analyze the Orthodox Jewish democratic voting size.

Column A is the area, by borough, and further down by Zip code, grouped by its UJA defined neighborhood clusters.

Column B is the number of democratic primary voters in NYC between 2009-2012, provided by Prime NY. (Only the citywide number was made available to us).

C: The total number of Jewish democratic primary voters circa 2009-2012, identified by their surnames by Prime NY , broken down by their zip codes and grouped together by each neighborhood cluster.

D: The total population in these areas as reported in the UJA study. Note: I used the highest figure, counting all members in Jewish households. The study contains a lower number for people described as Jewish (using this number would increase the Jewish turnout versus the general population, and I tried to be conservative with my estimates. Secondly, given that the voter data includes all people with Jewish surnames, I figured that it also includes non-Jews in households with Jewish surnames, thus correlating more closely with the higher figure).

E: The total number of Jews in each area, as reported by the UJA.

F: The percentage of Jewish residents versus the general population, as given by UJA.

G: The percentage of the Orthodox within the Jewish population, as given by the UJA (except where marked and explained in end note).

H: The number of Orthodox residents in these areas, calculated via the UJA given percentages (G) and their total number of Jewish residents (E).

I: The percentage of Orthodox versus general population (as a total H versus D. This number doesn't effect the present analysis. It is still of interest, though).

J, calculates the approximate number of Orthodox voters, crediting them for a share of the Jewish vote in their area (C) equal to their percentage of the area's Jewish population (G).

K is the Orthodox democratic primary vote per capita.

I embed the analysis again, to make it easier to the explanation and study on one page. Should you want it in an excel sheet, click here. 

NYC Orthodox Vote Analysis by Moshe Y Friedman

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