In last Tuesday's democratic primary, the Brooklyn DA race shaped out as the most contentious one in Orthodox neighborhood, particularly in Borough Park, where it developed as the latest proxy fight between Councilman David Greenfield and Assemblyman Dov Hikind.
David Greenfield skipped from endorsing in the mayoral race and in the public advocate races - where, from reviewing his twitter timeline while the field shaped up and from other clear indications, he had clear favorites: his colleagues Speaker Quinn and Letitia James - and poured all his efforts in the DA race. He lobbed a charged attack against Ken Thompson that was widely questioned , and he tweeted that Hynes' “opponent would target Jews. Don’t walk, run to the polls on 9/10!”
In Williamsburg, Hyne's was endorsed by both voting bloc, but the larger one, the Zalanites bloc that have turned out 2/3rd of the voters in predominant Hasididc EDs, announced its endorsement in the 11th hour, a day before the elections.
Hynes' supporters flooded the voters with Yiddish literature to convince voters that he's their best choice and warn them against Thompson, while the Thompson camp shot back with its own ads, repeating Hynes' statements against the community.
On primary night, Greenfield tweeted that the results are "shaping up to be another big loss for Assemblyman Dov Hikind in Boro Park." I was interested what the results really were, and I finally got the numbers.
In Borough Park - in the 48th assembly district's EDs that are mostly Jewish, according to a chart I received from political operative close to Greenfield and the Hynes camp - Charles Hynes picked up 57 percent, 3,967, of the recorded votes. Ken Thompson received 18 percent, 1,246 votes, while 1,746, 25% voters, skipped the DA race altogether. A Hynes backer tells me that the total number of voters includes republican party members who weren't able to vote in the Hynes primary.
While it is a decisive win for Hynes, it still shows that about 40 percent of those who walked or 'ran' to the polls weren't convinced to pull the lever for DA Hynes.
The results are very similar in Williamsburg, where Hynes had unanimous official endorsements. In the districts with a significant percent of Hasidic voters (in Assembly district 50 and one from Assembly district 53 that votes in a Hasidic Williamsburg polling site), Mr. Hynes received 5,913 votes, 62 percent, versus 1,259, 13 percent, for Thompson. 25 percent of the electorate ignored the DA race. The number of republican voters in Williamsburg or negligible. According to the BoE certified results, 335 votes casted in AD50 was for the GOP mayoral primary - 177 for Lhota vs. 133 for Catsamitidis - reducing the number of non-voters to roughly 21.5 percent. Still a huge percentage, especially when compared to BP.
Zeroing in to the almost exclusively Hasidic polling sites, the ones on Heyward and on Clymer St., the Hynes percentages are rising - to 68 and 64 percent respectively - and the percentages shrink, reflecting Thompson's strength with the neighboring minority and progressive voters. (BTW, These results are also instructive as for which EDs are mostly hasidic and which are more mixed. The aranites usually try to throw in the latter in the mix, to claim the non-Jewish votes as their's, but when both sides join to support a candidate who is facing stiff opposition outside of the Hasidic confines, the results demonstrate which EDs are pre-dominantly Hasidic).
To be sure, this number of unrecorded votes is to be expected for a down-ballot election. Actually, throughout Brooklyn almost 27 percent of primary voters skipped the DA race. Still, in the Orthodox communities, this race rivaled the mayoral race and grabbed the most interest and attention. Most Orthodox voters who skipped that race did it deliberately, I believe.
Let me also add, that Charles Hynes had the best showing percentage-wise, in Borough Park's AD44, and the took in the largest number of votes and the second highest share of the vote from Assembly district, thanks to the Orthodox support. Still, it wasn't unanimous.
One factor in the Williamsburg results is that both sides settled for one candidate. Sounds counter-intuitive? Hmmm. I had this discussion with several outsiders, if the schism in the Williamsburg electorate could have been united an turn out their combined voting powers for one candidate. I think, and history backs me up, that not.
First, unfortunately, the split galvanizes the voters and doubles the turnout (the best a candidate can hope is that both sides will come together for his race while splitting on some other race in the ballot. i.e. In the current elections, Squadron and Stringer benefited the most).
Furthermore, in races where people have strong personal opinions about the candidates, a large percentage would voter for their personal favorite, except when it turns into a referendum between the two communities, the voters will unite and vote with their base (the 2009 mayoral race is the best example for both arguments. Both sides endorsed Bloomberg. Turnout was meager and about 1/3rd voted for Mr. Thompson). The current DA results may reflect the second phenomenon. In such cases, the candidate winning both endorsements ends up getting roughly the same votes as when receiving the much-larger bloc-voter, affiliated with the zalanites.
It's is noteworthy that Councilman Steve Levin, who only received the endorsement of the Zalanites, and the Aranites are promising and campaigning for years to defeat him (though chickened out from endorsing his opponent to avoid a crushing defeat, after realizing that his opponent doesn't have the overwhelming support outside of the hasidic districts to counter the much larger Zalanites bloc), received almost as much votes as Hynes, 5,805, with a similar percentage of unrecorded votes. It reflects that fact, that sometimes a unanimously-supported candidate doesn't necessarily fare better than one receiving only Zalanite support.
Anyhow, the elections is over, and Mr. Thompson will to all likelihoods ride to an easy general election victory. Personally, I was bothered by the charged attacks during the primary season. I hope we can get past this stage, and we trust that he will work diligently for a just Justice system for all.
Below are the Board of Elections results (caution: all current results are unofficial and doesn't include absentee and emergency ballots) for Borough Park's AD 48, 50, and 53 (one of the Heyward's site is in the 53rd and is predominantly Hasidic), and after that see the charts tabulating the results in hasidic areas.
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Your numbers are highly misleading to the point of being disingenuous. It is bizarre for you to count the non-voters, those skipping the DA race, as a percent versus those voters who actually voted. No one counts it in this manner. You are simply fudging the percentages in this manner to manufacture the results you were seeking.
ReplyDeleteYou are completely off base in conveniently assuming that Orthodox Jewish voters skipping the DA race, something they actually did in lesser relative numbers than Brooklyn at-large, did so deliberately. This is a tactic you needed to conjure to get the results you have.
Without this fudging, and counting the votes the way votes have always been counted -- Candidate A 85% vs. Candidate B 15% without regard to unrecorded down-ballot votes, it turns out that DA Hynes received close to 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote.