Dilan vs. Velázquez & Williamsburg Congressional Gerrymandering

It is widely rumored that Councilman Erik Dilan is considering a campaign to unseat Congress Woman Nydia Velázquez, and he already started to raise funds for it. According to a Dilan supporter, they’re banking on the supports of the Satmars, among others. This confirms my prior assumption that Williamsburg will be gerrymandered out of the 10^th congressional district, currently held by Congressman “Ed” Towns. Coming June, when the primary will take place, it will probably find it-self in NY-12 Velazquez’s district.

Dilan vs. Velazquez will be a battle between the Brooklyn party machine – headed by Assemblyman Vito Lopez, who is closely aligned with the Dilans – and the reform movement, where Velazquez is the most prominent figure.

A Democratic operative supporting Mr. Dilan told The Politicker: “I think the Dilans and Lopez believe that, in a Democratic primary, the Satmars, public housing population, and Asians, along with splitting the Latino vote with Nydia, could prove to be a path to victory for Erik,” he said, referencing Mr. Lopez’s strength in one of Williamsburg’s Hasidic sects, as well as both Mr. Dilan’s and Mr. Lopez’s influence in public housing.

The district in its current shape only includes several hundred Satmar voters. Banking on the Satmars, is a good indication that Dilan expect NY-12 to be reshaped to include the Hasidic Williamsburg neighborhood that can easily deliver 5,000 votes.

Mr. Lopez, a shrewd political operative, probably has a good idea of the redistricting commission’s negotiations, and Mr. Dilan’s father is a member of the commission and his son is likely privy to inside information (this was not outlawed under the stock act that bans the use of inside info). If he really jumps in the race, we will have an early indication of where Williamsburg will be after redistricting.

The Satmars that the Dilans are boasting about are the UJO faction, headed by close Lopez-ally Rabbi David Niederman, controlling a majority of the votes. Rabbi Niederman would much rather oppose Velazquez, than to have to take a side in the Towns vs. Jeffries fight. He was once close with Towns, but inside sources say that the relations froze more than a year ago. Also, Lopez is clearly backing Jeffries, and Niederman usually supports the Lopez ticket. Still, it would be a hard sell for Niederman to go against an incumbent whom the rank and file knew as a friend for years.



Lopez and Niederman (left, hand on shoulder)

 On the other hand, Velazquez is one of the strongest opponents to the Broadway Triangle housing development, a Niederman signature issue in partnership with Lopez founded Ridgewood Bushwick group.  Towns also opposed it, and this may have contributed to the friction with Niederman. However, Velazquez was never known as a friend to the community and is a more outspoken foe to its interests, so it will be far easier to rile the voters against her.

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