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Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Hasid at Velazquez's Gillibrand Endorsement and Woman Empowerment Rally

Nydia Velazquez netted the important endorsement of Christine Gillibrand, NY's Junior Senator, coupled with a group of female elected officials, at a rally denouncing the GOP suppression of woman. Photos of the event are showing a visible Hasidic woman in the forefront. I find it groundbreaking, that a regular Hasidic woman should publicly call for woman empowerment.


Interestingly, the endorsement rally took place a day after a NY Observer female reporter had disguise herself as a man while sneaking in to the massive man-only anti-internet rally at Citifield (BTW, I find this episode troubling and unethical, especially after causing a Rabbi to violate his religion unwittingly).

Talking of the Velazquez race, Hasidic-Brooklyn wrote an in-depth piece on the Hasidic vote. It's very detailed and recounts mostly forgotten history of the elections cycles in the last 11 years. I don't have the time to verify the numbers, but they look quite accurate. Some of the calculations are too nuanced and complicated for a cordial reader and blogger, and would serve only for a campaign's number cruncher (it would qualify as a white paper commissioned by the Restler campaign). I still have to touch on two points.

I dissent on his assertion that the Velazquez-Dilan race, that it is "unlikely that Hasidic voters would really mobilize and vote for Latinos candidate because of the past tensions in Williamsburg... Furthermore the younger Hasidic generation tends to not always vote the way their leader ask them."


I believe that the community will mobilize like never before. In fact, both sides are already running intensive voter registration drives. The camp battle is driving up passions. I will be surprised if Erik Dilan doesn't pull in the vicinity of 5,000 votes from the Hasidic neighborhoods and Nydia doesn't receive above 2,000 votes (the district takes in much more Hasidic voters than Levin's, and the community's explosive growth is well documented. Even if turnout remain as in the Levin-Abraham case, these numbers should hold up). I speculated that he can receive as high as 6,500 (though I wouldn't put my credibility on the line for the higher number). The second statement, about the younger vote, is totally unfounded when it comes to local elections, where the voters aren't really plugged into the issues and candidates, and only internal politics matter.

One interesting number that Hasidic-Brooklyn is presenting, is the effect of redistricting on Lincoln Restler's reelection chances. Restler already recognized the fact that Hasidic Williabsurg, unfriendly turf for him, is now making up a larger part of his district. Hasidic Brooklyn is quantifying it's effect: Looking on the 2010 results only of the EDs that are in his current district," Lincoln Restler’s victory in 2010 would become a defeat: 3344 against 2869."  As I said, I don't have the time to verify these numbers independently, but the piece looks like a well researched analysis.

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3 comments:

  1. just a quick comment, as i'm working on another post about velazquez's election. I remember the last time they registered new voters (http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/08/post-20.html). I double checked : In Hasidic Williamsburg, it was actually 2097, for the whole 2008 year, not more than in 2005. 490 of them never voted, and only 990 voted in 2010.

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    1. And the link only refers to one side... I know that you always have to remove a zero from Hasidic numbers... They are masters in exaggeration. But what I'm hearing now, at least already surpassed your number. If you have a source in BOE, it would be prudent to try to get the latest numbers.

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    2. i meant both UJO and UJCARE of course. we'll see, but i would be surprised if they reach even 3000 (for the year).

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