On the ballots, it's a race between candidates; political insiders see it as fight between Lopez and the reformers; and in Williamsburg the major show is between the 2 Satmar camps. Here is what to watch for from the last perspective:
Total number of votes: Both sides will increase their total number of votes, possibly to double the roughly 3700/1900 seen in the hottest race so far. Their respective political clouts to bring home goverment assistance should grow. In that respect, it's gonna be a win-win.
Percentages: It will be especially important to watch the percentages Dilan and Velazquez will have in the community. No sane observer expects Velazquez to win a majority of the votes. The question is if the 65/35 divide will stay, or the Aranites will gain significantly. If they reach over 40 percent, it will be significant. I'm hearing grumbles about fraud, but it won't matter. The numbers matter, an it will matter in future internal squabbles, as to how strong elected officials will support the Zalanites.
Bragging rights: If the community is going to turn this race on it's head (I'm not gonna spell this out, but given the disparity in turnout between Williamsburg and elsewhere it is not totally impossible), it will shock the political world, and the Zalanites' and UJO's power will grow immensely. If they don't, it will change nothing, besides giving the Aranites bragging rights, that they won.
Note: There are a large number of absentees and affidavits in the Hasidic areas. If the difference it 2-3 percent, we will probably wait a while before knowing clearly who won.
For notification of new posts, follow me @opundit.
No comments:
Post a Comment