After quitting republican politics..., Yossi Gestetner waded into Williamsburg politics. He claims that it appears that the Aranites and Velazquez had 46 percent of the votes in Williamsburg, against 54 for the other side.
Since he started to crunch the numbers, I would seize the opportunity to really get down to the bottom of it. According to my sources, the zalanites had over 60 percent. It's several points weaker than they used to be, for sure, but not as weakened as Yossi is trying to paint them, and it's mainly due to being out-organized by the Aranites.
As a fellow who is trying to stay in the vicinity of the facts; as one who recently claimed to serve all stripes of Judaism - probably the zalmanties include; and as a person acting as a more neutral observer than most hasidic pundits out there who are interested in the Satmar politics, I have an offer/challenge to you - rather to both of us: put out your numbers, broken down into polling sites and EDs, and lets really examine it. It will be helpful for those who really want the facts.
It may take time for me to respond, since I'm not as heavily in blogging as you, and for the real results we may have to wait for the BoE and third parties to get them out, but lets slowly examine the facts, to enlighten us and a lot of those interested in the facts.
Would you take it up?
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Sporadic blogging - depending on time availability - of mostly political news of interest to the Jewish Orthodox Community in Brooklyn, particularly Williamsburgh, written by a Brooklyn Yungerman, immersed in Local politics, with a lot of inside stuff. Instead of checking the blog when something comes up, follow me on Twitter @opundit It’s time for some transparency on the political happenings in the Heimishe community!
דאס וואס ארטאקאס פונדיט שרייבט אז "it's mainly due to being out-organized by the Aranites" איז שקר וכזב. די זאלונים האבן שוין אנגעהויבן מיט זייער "אחים לדעה" קאמפיין וואכן בעפאר די ארונים האבן זיך דערמאנט צו מאכן א "בלאק וואוט" קאמפיין. און די זאלונים האבן געארבעט פלייסיגער, אהיימשיקענדיג רעגיסטראציע צעלעך צו די מאמעס, אויסטיילענדיג רעגיסטראציע צעטלעך פאר די מענער בעת די ארונים האבן ווייט נישט אזוי פלייסיג געארבעט.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your opinion, but would appreciate if you can next time write in English. Part of my audience only read English.
DeleteOn election day, according to other sources, the aronim had a far better and sophisticated ground fame, with people in ate the polling examining the voter books and recording on handheld devices who haven't voted yet, to drive them out to the boots. Their prize card had bar codes, using it to identify who voted already, to target does who haven't yet.
Yossi Gestetner, in his writing yesterday, also marvels about their organization
Keep up your great work! We need a neutral voice who's facing facts not ideology.
ReplyDeleteYossi showed us that he's selling facts for money....
Btw I'd like to ask you to write more on your blog and to be more active on your twitter acct @Opundit.
Thanks for the kind words. I'm not sure that Yossi is doing it for money, or he's misinformed.
DeleteI'm limited in time, so I can't blog more.
Response to Yossi Geshtetner's bogus analysis.
ReplyDeleteWed, Jun 27, 2012 12:47 PM
Without disparaging Yossi Gestetner personally, it must be noted that as a paid consultant for Aroinim he is still doing a poor job.
Spinning with facts that are not possible to backup will most surely backfire and destroy whatever credibility he might still have.
Can he name that "one voting location of younger Hasidic voters, the split is 49-51". There is none.
In fact the most pure voting location in Williamsburg is the IS171 on Heyward Street, it covers approximately the Williamsburg area north of the BQE to Heyward Street, an area populated 99% with only hasidic families.
It also happens to be the largest Williamsburg voting site with a total vote turnout of over 2,600 votes. The breakdown was 1,672 for Dilan versus 947 for Velasquaz.
Each and every voting site in Hasidic Williamsburg had at least 61% for Dilan. When the numbers are analyzed it shows that the voting sites south of the BQE where there are more elderly Jewish families the Dilan numbers dropped off a bit (Still above 61%) and that's because of the succesful Absentee drive by the Zalman (Dilan) people of the elderly population, there are approximately 700 absentee ballots to be read and 90% will be for Dilan.
Its true that chaos reigned in Hasidic Williamsburg. People who registered recently were not on the voter books, peoples names were missing from the books en masse, 100's of people left the voting sites instead of spending the time to do affidavit ballots after standing inline for 90 minutes or longer.
Its also true that the Aroinim had a very sophisiticated and intimidating presence at the voting sites. They had youngsters with blackberrys acting as poll watchers, emailing each name as a person obtained their ballot and they had a very targeted GOTV operation, knew everyone that voted and got the remainders out.
This operation probably gave them an extra 3-4 points by succesfully pulling their people to the polls with way greater accuracy than the Zalmen operation who didn't do a targeted GOTV, but in the end it was still very close to 2-1 for Dilan against Velasquez and these numbers won't change anytime soon.
If someone will take the time and analyze the election results for Williamsburg over the past 12 years since the break up of Satmar, beginning with the very first race of Fisher/Markowitz for Boro President in 2001, the consistency of 65/35 split is a constant with very little varaiation.
Turnout skyrocketed but the percentage split is a constant.
Yossies analysis is bogus and can't be supported by facts, its just wishful thinking.
about the voting history : http://hasidicbrooklyn.tumblr.com/post/26449780760/velazquez-dilan-election-results
ReplyDelete