Furthermore, even when we add up the total of all Russian candidates, including Oberman, Lotovsky, and Davidzon's write-ins, Deutsch is still ahead by 67 votes. Only when adding the unattributed ballots he comes up shy by 147. It's illogical to assume that most or even half of the votes for the other Russian candidates would have gone to Storobin without another russian choice on the ballot. A lot of these voters clearly dislike Storobin and probably would not vote or would have voted for Deutsch in the absence of a russian choice. To sum it up, the raw numbers confirm that Deutsch would have carried the election in a 1-to-1 match-up with Storobin.
Update 12/10: My friend and prominent Blogger Gatemouth posted a long piece on this issue, and the debate between me and Kornbluh, and concludes that: "Anyway, the votes are in and Orthodox Pundit, whose analysis is very similar to mine, has been proven right, and Jacob Kornbluh has been proven dead wrong." The debate also continued in the comment sections of his post, and Kornbluh backtracks even more, without admitting that he does so.
Below is the original article, posted on November 24:
*
A review of the unofficial Board of Election results for the 48th council district obtained by OP shows that Chaim Deutsch did relatively well in the the Russian areas of the district against David Storobin. Thus, his victory should be mostly credited to his strong appeal throughout the different groups in the community.
During the recent redistricting process, Council District 48 sounded like the Balkans of Brooklyn. Orthodox Orthodox Jews criticized its redrawing to create a super-Russian district, and some thought that only Russian has a chance in that district. I was told that this was the reason why Frank Seddio supported Kagan in the primaries. During the elections I often found my-self lonely when arguing with twit-pals that Chaim has a shot in that district against a Russian candidate (here is one from a former pal with whom I recently had a fallout, because of this...). Even those giving him the benefit of the doubt, only based it on splitting the Russian vote.
Chaim, for his part, led a clever and tactical campaign. As a guy who is well-known and appreciated by the various demographic groups in the district - thanks to his benevolent endeavors through the Shomrim and his dedication while on the staff of Councilman Mike Nelson - Chaim didn't gave up on any community, as he didn't take the Orthodox for granted.
His every-community-is-in-play strategy was evident during the campaign, when Chaim very careful not to base his campaign on pitching one community against another. Of course being one of their own played well within the Orthodox community, as did the support of the Rabunim, but this was not the centerpiece and it was done very quietly. For example, on primary-eve - in the late night hours - I posted an earlier version of this article that hi-lights that the Orthodox deserve to have a second Councilman. Shortly thereafter I was emailed by someone involved to remove it (I complied). Chaim also didn't role out endorsements for his candidacy in noisy press conferences, the show of force that we got accustomed to in other Orthodox campaigns. I would like to believe that he took my advice on the virtues of a humble campaign to heart, but I rather think that he didn't want to be seen with mostly Orthodox or non-Russian supporters.
On election night, Chaim reaped the results, when surprised everyone when beating his Russian opponent by 2,359 votes, receiving an absolute majority, 54 percent, of the total vote. His wipe-out in the Russian areas didn't happen. Chaim won a similar 54 percent in Assembly district 45, with a strong Russian electorate (last year a Russian Orthodox Jew, Ben Axelrod, was only a couple of hundred of votes shy from defeating Assemblyman Steve Cymbrowitz in a primary). That district delivered the most votes - over 45 percent of the total in the whole council district. Although he lost the 46th Assembly district, represented by the only Russian-legislature Alec Brook-Krasny, he received 37.5 percent there versus 50 percent for Storobin. In the primary, Ari Kagan beat him there almost 4-1 in the primary, and Igor Oberman received double his votes in the democratic primary. (Chaim lost another Assembly district, the 59th, where Storobin got 100 percent of the vote - one vote...)
Chaim carried other districts by much higher margins, pulling over 57 percent in the 41st assembly district which delivered a third of the overall vote, and with 70-80 pervent in the 42nd and 48th assembly districts' small areas overlapping with the 48th Council district/
Chaim's widespread appeal throughout the district is obvious. Of course it's also the credit of his opponents knack to make arch-enemies outside and within in his own community, some of whom even resorted to child labor to defeat him (just kidding, my friend, I know Dybbuk enjoyed it...).
There was another factor contributing to Chaim's easy victory, which is Gregory Davidzon's write-in campaign. Davidzon's feud with Storobin goes back some time, and his candidacy was believed to be a way to shave off Russian votes from Storobin.
Was this the key to Deutsch's victory? It's very unlikely.
The Board of Election results doesn't yet include the write-in tallies, and even when it will, Davidzon allies argue that it will not show his real number because a lot of write-ins will be tossed away on technicalities. Still, they argued, it served the purpose of chipping of these votes from Storobin. But lets't if that theory is possible to hold.
According to the current unofficial count, 2,558 - 13.27 percent of all who turned out to the poling - haven't voted for any Council candidate of the ballot, meaning that they are possible Davidzon write-ins. Some of these voters just ignored the council race (it happens allover - e.g. in neighboring 44th Council district about about 6.5 percent skipped the council race). Still, it seems obvious that a majority of the non-recorded votes were Davidzon's, given that the percentage of the non-votes rises with Storobin's strength, rising to 20 percent in the 46th district. The lowest percentage of non-recorded votes is in the 42nd, where they make up 3.42 percent. Let's assume that the anything above some 3 percent of the turned-out not recording a vote are Davidzon voters. This would give for Davidzon almost 2,000 votes, and even if all would go to Storobin Deutsch would still win.
These number is very generous. On the other hand, the results doesn't include absentee ballots, and it is very thin on other paper ballots. When more papers will be added, it may shrink Deutsch's lead (Storobin previously 'mastered' the absentee process) and Davidzon may get a bunch of new write-ins. After all, it's unlikely that Davidzon should reach the number of Chaim's margin of victory, but I think he received between thousand and two thousand votes. David Storobin should be ready to pay up for his bet, once the votes are certified.
Chaim victory is one of a post-identity political area, as is Chaim a post-identity public servant who caters to all with dedication and compassion. It's well-deserved.
 |
| Council district 48 vote results breakdown per Assembly district |
For notification of new posts, follow me @opundit.
No comments:
Post a Comment