DA Race: A Starker Tale of Two Communities; Endorsements Carried Williamsburg, Didn't Matter in Borough Park

The further I analyze the detailed results of the past general elections, the numbers gets more boring and redundant. I already prove the weight of the leading Williamsburg endorsement - of Rabbi David Niederman, head of the Zalanite-dominated union - that resulted in about three quarters of the votes going to Bill deBlasio in the general elections, versus Borough Park where deBlasio lost despite having all the official endorsements. Still, after tabulating the results of the Brooklyn DA race in these neighborhoods I decided to revisit the subject, as this is an even starker example how much an endorsement-switch mattered in Williamsburg, and how little it changed the results in Borough Park.

The Brooklyn DA race was rare for producing two elections between the same candidates in less than two months. Incumbent Charles Hynes was defeated in the September primary by DA-Elect Ken Thompson, but went on to the general election as a republican candidate. In both Orthodox areas, Williamsburg and Borough Park, the establishment (or most of it in Borough Park) was behind Hynes in the primaries, and switched to Thompson in the general elections. In Williamsburg, the switch totally turned around the election results, while it hardly made a dent in Borough Park.

Hynes - who was backed in the primary by the Brooklyn party establishment - enjoyed the unanimous political support in Williamsburg, and almost unanimous support in Borough Park. In the latter, Assemblyman Dov Hikind - who lacks any political operation and hardly sways voters, as far as recent election results can tell - sided with Thompson, but Councilman David Greenfield pulled out all the stops for Hynes.

Hynes carried both Orthodox areas with mega-landslides. He won Borough Park by over 76 percent of the voters picking a candidate for DA, versus less than 24 percent for Thompson. In Williamsburg, Hynes picked up an astonishing close to 82.5 percent, versus Thompson's 17.5 percent. (These percentages are of the voters in the DA race, and excludes those who turned out to vote but skipped the DA race. A large number of voters skipped the race altogether. For the breakdowns of all who turned out to vote in that election, see here).

In the general election, the Williamsburg endorsements landscape made a u-turn - all political factions jumped to the Thompson camp. Similarly in Borough Park, David Greenfield and the large communities switched their endorsements to Mr. Thompson.

In Williamsburg, the results followed the endorsements, making a 180 degree turnaround. Mr. Thompson picked up 74 percent of the vote in the Orthodox EDs, versus 26 percent for Hynes. It shows the strong influence of the community endorsements in Williamsburg.

Not so in Borough Park. Hynes, without the official endorsements still picked up an astonishing 71.3 percent of the Orthodox election districts, versus 28.7 percent for Mr. Thompson.

Mr. Greenfield, when announcing his switch to the Thompson camp, cautioned that he didn't think his endorsement would swing overwhelming numbers of voters. He was understating its uselessness. It hardly switched 5 percent of the electorate.

Actually, when looking of the net gain/loss in votes, Mr. Hynes expanded his lead in Borough Park by over 75 percent, thanks to the almost-double turn-out over the primary. In the primary his BP advantage was 2,721 votes over Thompson (3,967 vs. 1,246), and it grew to 4,801 in the general (8,033 - 3,232), a net gain of 2,080 votes despite losing the 'powerful' endorsements. In Williamsburg, on the other hand, the switch of endorsements meant a net gain for Mr. Thompson of 6,653 votes, going from losing the area by 4,654 votes (5,913 for Hynes  1,259 Thompson), to winning it by 1,999 (3,086 Thompson, versus 1,087 for Hynes). I have yet to find another person who can so quickly and easily switch over such a high and concentrated number of votes as Rabbi Niederman does repeatedly. (Note: this is not the whole story. Williamsburg turnout in the general was less than half of what it reached in more galvanized elections and it was only 55 percent of the primary. This bloc, when it turns out is maximum, can be double as strong).

Some may explain away part of the non-movement to Thompson in Borough Park to the fact that a lot of voters may have perceived Geenfield's endorsement as only nominal, and not as vigorous as earlier he opposed and railed against Thompson in the primary. I doubt that this could have been a real factor, especially since most of the electorate isn't as politically tuned in and they take endorsements on their face value.

Moshe Friedman, a political operative from the Greenfield orbit who nevertheless often acts independently, led a charged pro-Hynes anti-Thompson Yiddish campaign in these two communities. Discussing the results, he chose to focus on the number of voters who skipped that race altogether. Some 23 percent of voters didn't choose a DA candidate in Williamsburg (in BP, some 10 percent failed to choose a DA campaign). He points out that during the general election the anti-Thompson campaign wasn't focused on the candidate, but on those who try to tarnish the community who tried to own that candidate, and he thinks that a hefty size of the electorate were concerned of these people which led them to skip that race.

I don't know if we can reach too much into the skippers, given that almost 14 percent didn't choose one of the main candidates in the mayor race in Williamsburg (they may have turned out to vote for a lesser-known candidate to make a statement or to vote on proposition one - We plan a separate post on the proposition results. Stay tuned; In contrast, in the primary, only some 4 percent didn't choose one of the better-known democratic candidates.). A less than 10 percent further decline for a candidate down the ballot may not be out of the norm. I, for one, think the candidate's repeated commitment to treat every community fair and just, and not to try individual case based on libels against communities, was reassuring to the overwhelming majority.

Below see the Board of Elections unofficial results for Assembly District 50 and 48, and further down, the charts compiling the results in of the Orthodox election districts in these ADs.

DA Unofficial BoE Results 48 and 50

DA Charts AD 48 50

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