Storobin’s ending a bit ahead or even straight with Fidler is a clear shocker. I opined a month ago that, “The Race is Fidler’s to Lose, But It’s Still a Possibility.” I honestly thought of it as a remote possibility. So, how did it happen?
I think that on the Orthodox front, more than anything, the last few elections showed that there is a strong anti-establishment mood in the Orthodox community. There is an insurgent segment that hates the inevitability mantle created by politicians around their candidates.
YW is spinning the results more on the Russians, who turned out in higher numbers and gave Storobin a 65% – 35% victory, against an Orthodox lead of 58% to 42% with a lower turnout, The takeaway have to be that as long the YW faction did better than Gregory Davidzon, than they’re okay…
Even if I should concede on the numbers (I didn’t have a chance to look on the breakdowns, and identifying EDs is a time consuming task I will not readily undertake in far flung neighborhoods), a top Fidler supporter privately lamented to me that “he got killed in Borough Park.” This was the place where they were severely disappointed.
So what happened here?
Looking back several election cycles, I identified a trend. I will start with the John Heyer vs. Brad Lander race, at a time when I came to age and started following these races.
Dov Hikind – and if I recall correctly Agudah leaders (a staffer for Rabbi Shmuel Lefkowits corrected me that Rabbi Lekowitz was all out by Heyer. This was probably an anomaly and I should note that he also was the most prominent Askon to break ties with the establishment and support Storobin) - supported Lander, but a group of activists, notably Shia Ostereicher from Belz, supported Heyer, pointing to his traditional marriage stances. Lander is today our councilman and Heyer ended third in the district overall. Still in staggering defeat for Hikind and Agudah, Heyer won Borough Park 74-13 against Lander.
Ostereicher and company were seen as the new kingmakers in town, and some started to count Hikind’s days, believing he’s losing out to the Hasidim who long ago overran the Hikind types in the Borough Park.
Shortly afterwards a special election for Simcha Felder’s seat came up. Hikind decided to align with the new Hasidic powers, and they settled on Joe Lazar as their candidate. Ostereicher worked hard for him, even pushing out others from the race, Hikind, Lander and Heyer, Agudah leaders and a ‘who is who’ list of the community also banded together to back Joe Lazar, creating an environment of inevitability. Result: David Greenfield, the insurgent, went on to a landslide in the district, and even the Hasidic BP split their vote almost evenly.
The Michael Grimm and Bob Turner races are two instances where Hiking tried to gain back his kingmaker role, by riding popular waves. On a side note, I’m astonished of Dov’s prophecy-qualities in predicting close elections, even knowing that Fidler-Storobin will end without a close winner.
In Turner’s case, in addition to anti-gay, it also was the anti-establishment insurgency that carried the Orthodox vote, notably Cheskel Bennet on the Orthodox side. Hikind succesfuly rode the insurgency horse.
In the current election, Councilman David Greenfield was trying his magic, cloaking Fidler with the inevitability mantle, while Storobin didn’t have too many Orthodox Jewish political leaders publicly supporting him. Fidler also had the support of the highly celebrated king Russian maker, Gregory Davidzon, whose star rose dramatically thanks to the Turner upset. I, for one, sensed an atmosphere a lot like the lead-up to the Greenfield-Lazar race, but thought that Greenfield had the advantage of the Bloomberg machine and that he led a more sophisticated targeted campaign than Storobin’s. For these reasons, I still felt that Fidler will win the seat and the establishment will win for a change.
The voters ended up the conventional powers.
My sense is that there is an active Orthodox electorate that hates to be told what to do and that the outcome is pre-determined. They rather like beaten down candidates who fight for their votes – it doesn’t matter if it’s with substance or with dirty attacks, as long they don’t come with high-profile names directing to them how to vote. I’d advise the next candidate to take a more humble approach.
And I’m not the only one seeing that trend. Sharing this with The Empire’s Colby Hamilton, he wrote me, “Your points about recent history were echoed by others.” He also added some French to my thesis: “more than anything they don't want to feel like its a fate acompli.”
UPDATE: It’s interesting that Greenfield and Hikind seemed to warm up during the current election season. Greenfield appeared on Hikind's show several weeks ago, and Hikind will attend a press conference in front of Greenfield's office today. Is it a co-incidence, or is this a continuation of the previous post-election re-alignments between the political powers?
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| Greefield and Hikind at today's press conference |
Clarification: By defying establishment, I mean the political establishment. I would be amiss not to recognize the major role the Rabbis played with their statement against Fidler's stand on marriage. This clearly played a major role. It didn't look like strong-arming and directing, but rather highlighting an issue that we all care about deeply. I don't say that this should be the singular issue we base our vote on (of course we had Gedolim who prohibited a vote for such a candidate without any exceptions, but if precedent tells us anything, most of the Rabbonim didn’t take such a stringent position on this). I think it would be far more prudent that the Rabbis see the whole picture and consider all the issues an election can influence before banning a vote on a singular issue. One thing is for sure, its high time politicians should realize that these issues can't be swept under the carpet. If they support such issues, this will be a major liability in the Orthodox community.
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I think you have it wrong. You're seeing the forest for the trees. The outcome in the Weprin debacle was two-fold - he was a candidate who was lackadaisical and thought he had it "in the bag" and, secondly, he's an orthodox Assemblymember who passionately vocalized support for the same-sex marriage bill.
ReplyDeleteThe issue in this current election is that MANY if not all Orthodox voters who were NOT republican and voting so, are under an impression that Mr. Storobin - an undeserving and inexperienced candidate - would be able to somehow repeal the marriage law. Add to that, the lies painted by his campaign staff and passed on to the Rabbis that Lew Fidler VOTED for gay marriage.
All that needs to happen now is for the Dems to educate the religious leaders as to the viability of a repeal, and demonstrate that they too can secure money and sustain a healthy relationship with the Orthodox lobby front, to reclaim the trust of the community.