Surprising Poll: Dilan Comes in Close Third; Velazquez Losing Some Ground

A rob-call internal poll conducted by the Innovation PAC came up with results that nay turn the race on its head. According to Dan Backer of the PAC, their automatic poll found that Erik Dilan is running third, closely trailing Dan O'Connor, whom some saw as running only to enable Dilan to win in a three-way race. The PAC, that made Nydia Velazquez as their main target to defeat in the current election cycle and is this is the only primary they are currently involved in, is also claiming that the Congresswoman lost some ground in a second poll conducted several weeks after the first.

The InnovationPAC is lobbying for federal Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program. As former chairwoman and current ranking member of the small business committee, Mr. Backer tells me, Nydia fought "tooth and nail to fundamentally change the nature of the SBIR program" to redirect money from small businesses to those owned by billion dollar companies. The PAC is now directing the brunt of it modest funds - but Mr. Backer guesses that "it's relative" - to defeat Nydia Velazquez. It launched a KnockOutNydia website, their poll is mentioned and was the base of an earlier post. After several email exchanges with Mr. Backer, who's closely holding the results partly in order not to help Mrs. Velasquez's campaign, I extracted from him some more clues about what his polls found.

Unlike the typical poll, where the candidates are listed and the participants are asked to name their choice, I gleaned that the PAC didn't polled the candidates against each other, but measured name recognition, positives and negatives of the 3 main candidates (Nydia, Dilan, O’Connor) separately. It also tried to identify the concerns of the district about Nydia. The group ran one poll on 3/31 and a second on 4/21.

In the most interesting finding, O’Connor was a little ahead in both name recognition and support in both polls. Between polls, O’Connor & Dilan both grew a little in name recognition and support at the expense of Nydia. 

Mr. Backer reacts to reports dismissing O'Connor: "I saw 1 or 2 posts from local media about how O’Connor is supposed to be a straw man to help out Dilan. I didn’t find the “evidence” presented in either post to be at all compelling – looked like a real stretch. Who knows, maybe it’s really the other way around?" (I expect a rant from Gatemouth - but please go easy on profanity. I want to quote you, but as an Orthodox, I comply with the FCC rules and adhere to much higher standards...)

Nydia, an incumbents of 2 decades, naturally starts off the strongest, but Mr. Backer is surprised that 20% were undecided on her from the outset. "As bad as she is, I hadn’t expected such weak fundamentals from a 2-decade incumbent." The second poll measured small but notable decreases in her support coupled with increases in her negatives and in the name recognition of her competitors. 

  

The poll also found that the large funds that Nydia raised from Wall street can hunt her. 35% of her self-identified likely supporters said that they are less likely to vote for her as a result.When asked if they would be interested in learning more about a qualified candidate other than Nydia, based on her being in Wall Street’s pocket, just over 50% of her self-identified supporters said yes.

The polls' sample sizes were modest, but statistically sufficient cross sections of the district based on random selections of likely voters that are registered Democrats and voted in 2 of the last 4 primary or general elections, Mr. Backer said. In a sign that its reliable, the numbers between the two polls tracked pretty cleanly.   

Mr. Backer analyzes: "That rate of change needs to grow for either alternate candidate to win – making this a battle of name recognition and voter education." He adds: "the reality of her extensive Wall Street funding, lack of district support, and a definite eagerness on the part of voters for an alternative creates a real opportunity."

"There isn’t much that would be better for small business innovation than getting rid of Nydia Velazquez, and the same is true for her district," Mr. Backer concludes.

Talking of the race, Velazquez won the endorsement of the 1099 SEIU, which is described as the largest NY Union. And Assemblyman Vito Lopez - Dilan's powerful backer - tried to rally Williamsburg and Bushwick loft tenants against Velazquez, by citing Nydia's lobbying to defeat a bill that he passed to protect the rights of the tenants.

Meanwhile, I'm still curious who commissioned the Opinion Research poll and what it found. Mr. Backer tells me that what I descried is totally different and much more elaborate than his poll. If anyone have a clue, please let me know. 

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