NY1 picked up the Satmar camp feud - first reported by Capital Tonight and than by the NY Post - that may engulf Nydia Velazquez. One interesting new point in that story is that the Zalmanites are now clients of political consultant Rabbi Hank Sheinklop, who was Ed Towns' Spokesman during his canceled reelection campaign. Williamsburg was in Towns' district under the new lines, but was redrawn into Nydia's.
The story drew the attention, and is fodder for twitter jokes, of local political reporters of the NY Times, Daily News, NY Observer (I'm stunned that Colin ignored it for so long) and the Forward. So we can expect that reporters will camp out on this story in the coming days.
What effect can this feud really have on Nydia race? I believe that it have to come down to under 3,000 votes that the camp feud should make a difference. Here is why:
The dominant voting bloc would vote against Nydia even without the camp story. They are firm Vito supporters. The other camp are anti-Vito, by default. In a non-interesting election the ruling bloc would have pulled about 2,300 votes, and the other bloc would bring out about 1,100 votes. So Nydia would end up with a net loss of about 1,200 votes. Exciting elections already ended with close to 4,000 for the dominant bloc, and close to 2,000 for the Aronites.
The camp story will galvanize both sides and may drive out voters in numbers never seen before. The highest estimate I would give is 6,500 votes for the zalmanites, and the other camp will drive out 2,500. This would amount to a negative 4,000 votes for Nydia. 2,800 of those votes may be credited to her involvement in this feud.
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Sporadic blogging - depending on time availability - of mostly political news of interest to the Jewish Orthodox Community in Brooklyn, particularly Williamsburgh, written by a Brooklyn Yungerman, immersed in Local politics, with a lot of inside stuff. Instead of checking the blog when something comes up, follow me on Twitter @opundit It’s time for some transparency on the political happenings in the Heimishe community!
Room 8 thinks that I'm overstating the numbers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/the_gateway_cramming_for_cranbrook_edition.html_0
It's true that it was a 65-35 split, and you probably can find that number plenty of time in my blog, but I believe that the camp saga may energize the zalanites more than the other group.
Time will tell! I want to have it on record...