Mayoral Race: Will the BP Trio Split? & the Williamsburg Vote

A day after the NY Times hailed the Orthodox vote as a rising power in next year's mayoral election, the public jockeying for bragging rights of winning this power started. Today came the opening shot, in form of a NY Post article, and it came from Dov Hikind, who is trying to position Billy Thompson as BP's choice.

The fact that Dov chose a candidate so early in the race, and haven't waited until after the casting of the last ballot, is news-worthy for it-self. Much less is his statement that: “Thompson’s definitely a favorite in the Jewish community, no question about it.”

It's true that Thompson had a strong showing in BP, and fared a bit better than expected in Williamsburg in the last elections, but this was more an anti-Bloomberg and anti-establishment vote, rather than a pro-Thompson vote, and it will in no-way carry over to the upcoming primary.

I predict that the upcoming primary will be very chaotic in Borough Park, with a strong possibility of sharply divided Borough Park splitting its vote between a handful of candidates.

There is a good chance that the trio of Orthodox officials likely to be in power by that time will split its endorsements between three candidates. Hikind is already committed for Thompson; Councilman David Greenfield may find himself indebted to Christine Quinn, who was very helpful in the fights for child care vouchers and other signature issues for the Jewish community; and Simcha Felder may go for John Liu, his current boss, should he run.

Photo source: Will the 'trio' turn into a 'triangle' in the upcoming mayoral primary?

And there is a fourth candidate who will fare well in the neighborhood: Bill de Blasio, who represented the area for eight years in the City Council. Colin Campbell is predicting that de Blasio will win BP. I will keep track.

Scott Stringer - the only Jew in the field - is arguably putting in the most effort to win the Jewish votes on a retail level. It included the publicizing of his son's Bris several months ago, that may not help his far-liberal credentials but it appeals to observant Jews. Still, Stringer haven't gained any real traction with the Jewish communities of Borough Park, Williamsburg and Crown Heights.

The Post crowned Thompson as the likely front-runner in the crowded Democratic field, which is not corroborated by the polls where Quinn is in top by a wide margin. I don't know if the Pharaoh issue changed anything, but Jews must have enjoyed her putting Pharaoh in the spot-light less than a month after he starred at the Seders. Quinn has a far bigger issue with the Orthodox community, as the Post is pointing out, which is her marital status that may be a severe liability with Orthodox constituencies. This will put David Greenfield in a hard dilemma if to support such a candidate.

Colin is also predicting that Vito Lopez's choice will win 2/3 of the Williamsburg vote. This would have been correct, if not for the Quinn factor. Should Lopez side with her, Lopez's Hasidic friends will find themselves in a very bad position, if to break with the county boss, or should they face an onslaught by the voters. The latter may have long term ramifications, weakening their bloc. If Vito will not support his candidate whole-heatedly, I can see him giving some leeway for his Orthodox friends to get them out from this difficult spot.

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